NOVEMBER 2011 – The results of off-year referendums in Maine are notoriously difficult to anticipate. In 2009, for instance, almost every poll released was widely divergent from the actual results of the People’s Veto on same-sex marriage.

However, based on a public opinion survey conducted from November 3rd through 5th, with a sample of 722 likely voters, the Maine People’s Resource Center (MPRC) anticipates a Yes vote on Question 1 this Tuesday and No votes on both Questions 2 and 3.

Full topline results, frequencies and a methodological description are available here.
Crosstabulations are available here.

“At this point, it appears that Maine is poised to vote in favor of Question 1, against Question 2 and strongly against Question 3.” said Mike Tipping, communications director for MPRC. “The actual results may well be closer, especially with late spending on advertising by several campaigns.”

The poll also found that Governor Paul LePage’s job approval rating has slightly increased since the last MPRC survey measurement six months ago (now at 44.3% approval to 46% disapproval).

According the results, Mainers were also much more likely to call themselves supporters of the Occupy Wall Street movement (43.6%) than they were the Tea Party movement (27.9%).

MPRC is a non-partisan, non-profit organization dedicated to giving Maine people, especially those groups that are under-represented in civic life, skills and information to participate in the decision-making processes that affect their lives.

Disclosure: It is important to note that MPRC supports Election Day voter registration and has made contributions to the Protect Maine Votes PAC, which urges a Yes vote on Question 1.