November, 2012 – Final 2012 General Election Poll

MPRC’s final poll of the 2012 General Election shows leads for President Barack Obama (statewide and in each Congressional District), U.S. Senate candidate Angus King, incumbent Representatives Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud and the Yes on 1 campaign.

The survey of 905 likely Maine voters was conducted from November 1st through 3rd and has a total margin of error of 3.26%, 95 times out of 100.

Perhaps the most obvious change in the results compared to MPRC’s last poll in September is a hardening of conservative opinion in CD2. This can be seen in the Presidential race and the marriage referendum, and is especially apparent in the decrease in Congressman Mike Michaud’s lead over challenger Kevin Raye.

This contrasts with a Critical Insights poll, also released today, which shows Michaud increasing his lead and President Obama with identical margins in both Congressional Districts.

This poll shows a smaller margin of support in favor of the Yes side on Question 1 than both the CI poll and a Public Policy Polling survey also released this weekend, but has the Yes side slightly above 50%. The results on Question 1 are not statistically different (at the 95% confidence level) from MPRC’s September survey.

This survey was conducted before Steve Wood’s announcement that he was conceding the U.S. Senate race.